2020 recovery - but no boom and plenty of risk.

Key Highlights:

  • Worldwide 2019 downswing outside US & China caused by trade war
  • Inventory liquidation in China & other EMs in 2019 1st half
  • Modest world trade revival in 2019 Q3 to continue into 2020
  • Chinese trade could fall in 2020, especially imports
  • US growth sub-2% in 2019 Q4 and 2020 Q1, then recovering
  • US 10-year yield was pulled down by EA/Japan weakness, now up a bit
  • Tepid European recovery – best hope is continued German wage gains
  • Brexit grind to continue, probably less visibly, in 2020
  • Fiscal deficits up and other factors imply higher dollar rates, long-run
  • Political risk in US 2020 elections is revival of Trump attack on EU
  • US election result in Nov., 2020, could start a bear market
  • A bear market is the most likely cause of a future US recession