TS Lombard’s MacroFest The post-Covid economy - What comes next, and how to trade it
*Now including an extra Evergrande contagion session on Day 3* If you are only interested in attending the Evergrande session, please register for Day 3 and dial in at 15:40 UK time (10:40 ET)
How should you trade the post-Covid economy? Join TS Lombard's MacroFest on 28th, 29th and 30th September and find out!
We'll focus on the following questions:
1)Is this a return to the pre-Covid cycle? Will China, again, provide the source of demand the rest of the world needs to grow? 2)The growth outlook has changed, will this spell trouble for the traditional 60/40 portfolio? 3)How will emerging markets generate sustainable growth and how do you pick the winners? 4)What will governments do to achieve their net-zero targets, and how can investors get exposure? 5) What are the upside and downside risks to our view?
* MacroFest is accredited for CPD points. Attendance qualifies for CFA Institute CE points.
Day One
Tuesday 28th September 2021
15:00 BST (10:00 ET) - The shape of the post-crisis cycle: Hear our US, European and China economists sort the signal from the noise and discuss how the world's major economies look after their recovery from the crisis. Is this a return to the pre-Covid cycle? Are there new growth drivers in place? Will China, again, provide the source of income the rest of the world needs to grow? Speakers: Steven Blitz, Chief US Economist, Rory Green, Head of China and Asia Research, & Shweta Singh, Global Macro and Europe Economics.
16:00 BST (11:00 ET) - Welcome to the post-Covid era of monetary and fiscal policy: Central bank reaction functions and attitudes to budget deficits have undergone significant changes over the last twelve months. Modern monetary theory has moved the Overton window, deficit hawks are no longer driving the conversation, and policymakers’ response to climate change is becoming critical. This has implications for the growth outlook and could spell trouble for the traditional 60/40 portfolio. Speakers: Dario Perkins, Managing Director, Global Macro, Grace Fan, Global Policy Research and Disruptive Themes Research, & Davide Oneglia, Senior Economist.
Day Two
Wednesday 29th September 2021
15:00 BST (10:00 ET) - Emerging markets after Covid: The outlook for a post-pandemic age:How will emerging markets generate sustainable growth – is it simply a case of “back to the old normal” or will elections in Brazil and India (litmus tests for how politicians are likely to fare in a plebiscite on crisis management) mean the EM growth environment will change too? And now, more than ever, investing in EM means careful country and asset selection: we share our top picks. Speakers: Larry Brainard, Chairman, Emerging Markets Panel, Jon Harrison, EM Macro Strategy, & Elizabeth Johnson, Brazil Research.
16:00 BST (11:00 ET) - Decarbonomics: With COP26, how will governments hit net-zero targets, and how can investors get exposure? Speakers: Charles Dumas, Chief Economist, Andrea Cicione, Head of Research, & Grace Fan, Global Policy Research and Disruptive Themes Research.
Day Three
Thursday 30th September 2021
15:00 BST (10:00 ET) - Deep dive: US productivity - can the US middle win back its share?:Expanding on the shape of the post-crisis cycle in the US, we discuss why the US wants to go back to the 1960s: How the Biden era will help the US middle; and how it also spells a prolonged tech war, more deglobalization and deeper global fractures. Speakers: Steven Blitz, Chief US Economist.
15:40 BST (10:40 ET) - Evergrande China growth contagion. *extra session* Evergrande will be ring-fenced but delay shows high pain threshold for authorities and raises risk of a serious policy miss step. It is already too late to prevent a significant property investment slowdown. The property sector share of China credit and growth is in terminal decline; lower investment and slower economic growth to follow for China; what will this mean for global growth and global financial markets? Speakers: Rory Green, Head of China & Asia Research, Larry Brainard, Chairman, EM Panel, & Andrew Lawrence, Head of Asia Property Research.
16:25 BST (11:25 ET) - Closing session - our investment positions and the biggest (upside and downside) risks to our view. Speakers: Andrea Cicione, Head of Research, & Dario Perkins, Managing Director, Global Macro.
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